Investors worrying about US growth outlook

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• R1 1.2946 – 10 March/2025 high – Medium
• S1 1.2800 –  Figure – Medium
• S2 1.2768 – 5 March low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is enjoying trading at four month highs against the Buck, getting some more help from BOE Mann who has ruled out a gradualist approach to monetary policy. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, an ECB Nagel speech, and the Eurogroup Meeting.

USDJPY – technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

• R2 151.31 – 3 March high – Strong
• R1 150.00 –Psychological – Medium
• S1 146.94 – 7 March/2025 low – Medium
• S2 145.91 – 4 October low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen continues to benefit from hawkish BOJ rhetoric, Japan economic data, shifting Fed expectations and broad based US Dollar selling. Rengo's wage hike demand has only added to the need for a hawkish BOJ shift. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, an ECB Nagel speech, and the Eurogroup Meeting.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6409 – 21 February/2025 high – Strong
• R2 0.6365 – 6 March high – Medium
• S1 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
• S2 0.6164 – 17 January low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is still contending with recent headwinds from a dip in Aussie household spending, and discouraging China trade data. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, an ECB Nagel speech, and the Eurogroup Meeting.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

• R2 1.4595 – 30 January high – Strong
• R1 1.4544 – 4 March high – Medium
• S1 1.4239 – 6 March low – Medium
• S2 1.4151 – 14 February/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Canada has come out pledging C$5 billion in an effort to help exporters contending with the threat of US tariffs, while also adding an additional C$1 billion of financing for agriculture businesses. Mark Carney has won out in overwhelming fashion to replace Justin Trudeau as the next PM of Canada. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, an ECB Nagel speech, and the Eurogroup Meeting.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5818 – 12 December high – Medium
• R1 0.5773 – 21 February/2025 high – Medium
• S1 0.5585 – 28 February low – Medium
• S2 0.5541 – 13 January low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is mostly tracking along with its Aussie cousin and bigger picture flows. We are seeing some demand as risk sentiment recovers off recent lows. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, an ECB Nagel speech, and the Eurogroup Meeting.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5500, with only a weekly close back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6152 – 19 February/Record high – Strong
• R1 6014 – 26 February high – Medium
• S1 5671 – 7 March/2025 low – Medium
• S2 5600 – Round Number – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this as 2025 gets going.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 3000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 2957 – 24 February/Record high – Medium
• S1 2833 – 28 February low – Medium
• S2 2730 – 27 January low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.