Stocks to infinity and beyond

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a corrective phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh 2021 and multi-month highs. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3500 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high.

• R2 1.3911 – 12 July high – Strong
• R1 1.3834 – 26 July high – Medium
• S1 1.3690 – 22 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3572 – 20 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Dovish BOE Vlieghe comments that easy money policy would be needed had no negative impact on the Pound on Monday, with the currency more focused on positive UK virus news and yield differentials. The fact that the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet has opened US Dollar outflows. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come in the form of Eurozone money supply. US durable goods, and consumer confidence.

USDJPY – technical overview

The longer-term trend is bearish despite the recent run higher. Look for additional upside to be limited, with scope for a topside failure and bearish resumption back down towards the 100.00 area. It would take a clear break back above 113.00 to negate the outlook.

• R2 111.00 – Figure– Medium
• R1 110.70 – 14 July high – Strong
• S1 109.07 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 108.34 – 7 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

We didn’t see much movement from the Yen on Monday. The currency was getting pulled in two directions and ended up going nowhere. On the one side, there was Yen selling as US stocks pushed up to fresh record highs. On the other side, there was Yen demand from broad based US Dollar outflow as the Fed continued to expand its balance sheet at record levels. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come in the form of Eurozone money supply. US durable goods, and consumer confidence.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The Australian Dollar has been in the process of a healthy correction following the impressive run towards a retest of the 2018 earlier this year. At this stage, there is risk for additional declines, though setbacks are expected to be well supported down into the 0.7000 area.

• R2 0.7504 – 13 July high – Strong
• R1 0.7411 – 19 July high – Medium
• S1 0.7290 – 21 July/2021 low – Strong
• S2 0.7200 – Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

We’re seeing underperformance in the Australian Dollar as the RBA backtracks on taper talk in light of all the fallout from the latest uptick in virus cases. The RBA has said QE will continue at AUD5 billion per week until February 2022. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come in the form of Eurozone money supply. US durable goods, and consumer confidence.

USDCAD – technical overview

Finally signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. The weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

• R2 1.2882 – 28 January/2021 high – Strong
• R1 1.2808 – 19 July high – Medium
• S1 1.2526– 21 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2425 – 14 July high – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Oil ran up for the fifth consecutive day and this helped to put some bids into the Canadian Dollar. We also saw some mild demand from the run higher to fresh record highs in US equities. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come in the form of Eurozone money supply. US durable goods, and consumer confidence.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has entered a period of consolidation after running up to a yearly and multi-month high. At this stage, there is still room for deeper setbacks into the 0.6500-0.6800 area before we see an attempt at a higher low and resumption of upside pressure.

• R2 0.7106 – 6 July high – Strong
• R1 0.7045 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6881 – 20 July/2021 low– Medium
• S2 0.6800 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar was the strongest of the commodity currencies on Monday, relatively outperforming on the back of economist upgrades on inflation, with New Zealand Q3 CPI seen up to 3.4%. Of course, there were also bids from the ongoing record run in US stocks. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come in the form of Eurozone money supply. US durable goods, and consumer confidence.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are looking quite exhausted and the market is showing signs of wanting to roll over after racing to another record high. Look for rallies to be well capped ahead of 4500, with a break back below 4139 to strengthen the outlook.

• R2 4450 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 4426 – 26 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 4233 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 4139 – 21 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We're trading just off fresh record highs, and yet, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout and risk of rising inflation should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment into the second half of 2021.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and an acceleration beyond the next major psychological barrier at 2000. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600.

• R2 1917 – 1 June high – Strong
• R1 1850 – Mid-Figure – Medium
• S1 1750 – 29 June low – Medium
• S2 1724 – 13 April low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, and coronavirus fallout. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.