An ugly Q1 2025

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• R1 1.3015 – 20 March/2025 high – Medium
• S1 1.2861 –  10 March low – Medium
• S2 1.2768 – 5 March low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is getting some more support as the new week gets going, particularly in the aftermath of the latest pop in UK retail sales. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German retail sales, German inflation reads, BOE consumer credit, UK mortgage approvals, Chicago PMIs, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

• R2 151.31 – 3 March high – Strong
• R1 151.21 – 28 March high – Medium
• S1 148.18 – 20 March low – Medium
• S2 146.54 – 11 March/2025 low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen was already well bid in the aftermath of hotter Japan inflation data in the previous week. The currency is finding more bids as the new week gets going after taking in some more positive data in the form of industrial production and retail sales. All of this is helping to support the case for additional BOJ rate hikes. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German retail sales, German inflation reads, BOE consumer credit, UK mortgage approvals, Chicago PMIs, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6409 – 21 February/2025 high – Strong
• R2 0.6392 – 18 March high – Medium
• S1 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
• S2 0.6164 – 17 January low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is struggling with softer Aussie economic data and fallout in global risk appetite. Since the last RBA decision, which was seen as a hawkish cut, things have been looking worse and this could invite a shift back towards a more accommodative bias. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German retail sales, German inflation reads, BOE consumer credit, UK mortgage approvals, Chicago PMIs, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

• R2 1.4595 – 30 January high – Strong
• R1 1.4544 – 4 March high – Medium
• S1 1.4239 – 6 March low – Medium
• S2 1.4151 – 14 February/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar continues to feel the heat from US tariff fallout, with PM Carney telling Trump Canada would retaliate. But we have seen some of the setbacks in the Loonie mitigated by Friday's round of better than expected Canada GDP. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German retail sales, German inflation reads, BOE consumer credit, UK mortgage approvals, Chicago PMIs, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5900 – Figure – Medium
• R1 0.5832 – 18 March/2025 high – Medium
• S1 0.5677 – 11 March low – Medium
• S2 0.5585 – 28 February low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

A dip in New Zealand business confidence has further contributed to the dovish outlook at the RBNZ. This along with a major reduction in global risk appetite should continue to weigh on the correlated currency. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German retail sales, German inflation reads, BOE consumer credit, UK mortgage approvals, Chicago PMIs, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. But we are in the throes of a meaningful correction with scope for the pullback to extend back towards major previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2022 high at 4820.

• R2 5792 – 25 March high – Strong
• R1 5704 – 28 March high – Medium
• S1 5509 – 13 March/2025 low – Medium
• S2 5386 – 6 September low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this as 2025 gets going.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension towards 3500. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2800 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 3200 – Round Number – Medium
• R1 3116 – 31 March/Record high – Medium
• S1 3000 – 21 March low – Medium
• S2 2957 – 24 February high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.