A deluge of downside risk

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a corrective phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh 2021 and multi-month highs. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3500 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high.

• R2 1.3984 – 30 June high – Strong
• R1 1.3888 – 11 August high – Medium
• S1 1.3739 – 17 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3690 – 22 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound was unable to garner any positive momentum from the solid UK employment report which included record wage growth in June and a downtick in the unemployment rate. Instead, the focus was on broad based US Dollar demand and risk off flow. Key standouts come in the form of an RBNZ meeting, UK inflation, Eurozone construction output, Eurozone inflation, Canada inflation, US housing starts, US building permits, and the Fed Minutes.

USDJPY – technical overview

The longer-term trend is bearish despite the recent run higher. Look for additional upside to be limited, with scope for a topside failure and bearish resumption back down towards the 100.00 area. It would take a clear break back above 113.00 to negate the outlook.

• R2 111.00 – Figure– Medium
• R1 110.81 – 11 August high – Strong
• S1 108.72 – 4 August low – Medium
• S2 108.34 – 7 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

We say demand for the US Dollar across the board on Tuesday, and despite the accompanying risk off flow, the Yen was still softer against the Buck. Key standouts come in the form of an RBNZ meeting, UK inflation, Eurozone construction output, Eurozone inflation, Canada inflation, US housing starts, US building permits, and the Fed Minutes.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The Australian Dollar has been in the process of a healthy correction following the impressive run towards a retest of the 2018 high earlier this year. At this stage, there is risk for additional declines, though setbacks are expected to be well supported down into the 0.7000 area.

• R2 0.7504 – 13 July high – Strong
• R1 0.7427 – 4 August high – Medium
• S1 0.7242 – 17 August/2021 low – Strong
• S2 0.7200 – Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar was already struggling with a more dovish leaning RBA minutes and downgraded Westpac 2021 GDP forecast, before taking an added hit to a fresh yearly low against the Buck on broad based US Dollar demand from risk off flow. Key standouts come in the form of an RBNZ meeting, UK inflation, Eurozone construction output, Eurozone inflation, Canada inflation, US housing starts, US building permits, and the Fed Minutes.

USDCAD – technical overview

Finally signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. The weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

• R2 1.2808 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 1.2649 – 17 August high – Medium
• S1 1.2422– 30 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2425 – 14 July high – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

There has been a very clear exodus from higher beta FX this week and the Canadian Dollar is falling victim to this flow as a consequence. We've also seen the Loonie suffer at the hands of softer housing starts data out of Canada and all of the upcoming political uncertainty around the September election. Key standouts come in the form of an RBNZ meeting, UK inflation, Eurozone construction output, Eurozone inflation, Canada inflation, US housing starts, US building permits, and the Fed Minutes.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has entered a period of consolidation after running up to a yearly and multi-month high. At this stage, there is still room for deeper setbacks into the 0.6500-0.6800 area before we see an attempt at a higher low and resumption of upside pressure.

• R2 0.7106 – 6 July high – Strong
• R1 0.7089 – 4 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6900 – 17 August low – Medium
• S2 0.6881 – 20 July/2021 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

It's been a 180 for the New Zealand Dollar in recent trade, with the currency taking a big hit as RBNZ rate hike expectations are reined in. A lot of this has to do with the latest lockdown restrictions after the virus resurfaced for the first time in 169 days. Key standouts come in the form of an RBNZ meeting, UK inflation, Eurozone construction output, Eurozone inflation, Canada inflation, US housing starts, US building permits, and the Fed Minutes.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are looking quite exhausted and the market is showing signs of wanting to roll over after racing to another record high. Look for rallies to be well capped ahead of 4500, with a break back below 4139 to strengthen the outlook.

• R2 4500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 4483 – 16 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 4374 – 3 August low – Medium
• S2 4233 – 19 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We're trading just off fresh record highs, and yet, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout and risk of rising inflation should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment into the second half of 2021.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and an acceleration beyond the next major psychological barrier at 2000. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600.

• R2 1917 – 1 June high – Strong
• R1 1835 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 1700 – Round number – Medium
• S2 1677 – 8 March/2021 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, and coronavirus fallout. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.