Canadian Dollar crushed on Trump tariff vow

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.2769 – 13 November low – Medium
• R1 1.2715 – 20 November high –Medium
• S1 1.2487 – 22 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2446 – 9 May low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is trading off recent lows but remains under pressure into Tuesday after getting rattled by the news of President-elect Trump's plans for tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. We had already seen more selling on Monday after CBI warned tax hikes would hit salaries and investment, BOE Dhingra was out with dovish speak while criticizing the ONS for incompetence, and a petition for a re-run in the general election got 2 million signatures. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come from UK CBI trades, Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the Fed Minutes late in the day.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 156.75 – 15 November high – Strong
• R1 155.89 – 20 November high – Medium
• S1 153.28 – 19 November low – Medium
• S2 152.14 – 8 November low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen has done a good job absorbing the news of the announced Trump tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, while also rallying despite dovish leaning comments from the head of the DPP. Tamaki said the BOJ should not rush into tightening monetary policy, as excessive moves on that front could possibly send the country back into deflation. It seems the market is still very much focused on the prospect of the BOJ raising rates in December. Today's rise in services producer prices contributes to the case for higher rates. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come from UK CBI trades, Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the Fed Minutes late in the day.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6688 – 7 November high – Strong
• R2 0.6550 – 25 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6434 –26 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar was hit hard earlier today on the news of the Trump tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. The commodity correlated currency has also been fighting against the latest slide in commodities prices. We are however seeing some offsetting flow into the Australian Dollar on dips ahead of tomorrow's Aussie inflation data. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come from UK CBI trades, Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the Fed Minutes late in the day.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4200 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.4179 – 26 November/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3927 – 25 November low – Medium
• S2 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been slammed to its lowest level against the Buck since April 2020 after President-elect Trump said he would be imposing a 25% tariff on Canada for all products on immigration and drug related issues. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come from UK CBI trades, Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the Fed Minutes late in the day.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6038 – 7 November high – Strong
• R1 0.5948 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5816 – 22 November low – Medium
• S2 0.5797 – 26 November/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar sunk to a fresh yearly low earlier today on the news of the Trump tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. The commodity correlated currency has also been fighting against the latest slide in commodities prices. We are however seeing some offsetting demand on dips ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ decision. A 50 basis point rate cut is expected, though there is a 25% chance for a bigger 75 point move. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come from UK CBI trades, Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing, and the Fed Minutes late in the day.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5838 – 19 November low – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2722 – 25 November high – Medium
• S1 2537 – 14 November low – Medium
• S2 2500 – Round Number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.