Euro sinks to fresh 2024 low

Today’s report: Euro sinks to fresh 2024 low

We come into Friday with the US Dollar having extended its run of yearly gains against the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, and multi-week gains against the Pound. Overall, the US Dollar remains well in demand across the board.

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

Choose pair:

EURUSD – technical overview

The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a major bounce in the days ahead and the start to a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276. Only a monthly close below 1.0400 negates.

  • R2 1.0825 – 7 November high – Strong
  • R1 1.0664 - 12 November high – Medium
  • S1 1.0462 - 21 November/2024 low – Medium
  • S2 1.0448 – 2023 low – Very Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

There's a big debate going on between ECB hawks and doves. At the moment, the doves are clearly winning out with the market responding to concerns around risks of inflation undershooting. Meanwhile, an ECB report outlining bank vulnerability to USD funding has also unsettled traders. The Euro has sunk to a fresh yearly low, taking an added hit on stronger US claims data and some hawkish Fed speak. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2500 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 1.2769 – 13 November low – Medium
  • R1 1.2715 – 20 November high –Medium
  • S1 1.2500 – Psychological – Medium
  • S2 1.2446 – 9 May low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

UK borrowing in October topped all expectations and there is worry further tax increases may be required. This along with stronger US claims data and hawkish Fed speak has accounted for the latest slide in the UK currency. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

  • R2 157.00 – Figure – Medium
  • R1 156.75 – 15 November high – Medium
  • S1 153.28 – 19 November low – Medium
  • S2 152.14 – 8 November low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

We haven't seen much movement in the major pair on Friday thus far. Earlier, Japan inflation data came in slightly above forecast overall, while PMI reads were mixed. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

  • R1 0.6688 – 7 November high – Strong
  • R2 0.6547 – 13 November high – Medium
  • S1 0.6440 –14 November low– Medium
  • S2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is coming under some pressure after S&P Global Market Intelligence Economics Associate Director Jingyi Pan commented "the slowing employment growth trend and softer output prices are supportive of the outlook for lower interest rates." Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

  • R2 1.4200 – Figure – Medium
  • R1 1.4106 – 15 November/2024 high – Medium
  • S1 1.3930 – 13 November low – Medium
  • S2 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has held up better than its commodity currency cousins this week, boosted on hotter Canada inflation and better industrial product and raw materials prices. Higher oil and renewed demand for US equities have also helped the Loonie's cause. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

  • R2 0.6038 – 7 November high – Strong
  • R1 0.5948 – 13 November high – Medium
  • S1 0.5826 – 22 November/2024 low – Medium
  • S2 0.5800 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

There hasn't been any major update out of New Zealand today and the the focus remains on expectations around a 50 basis point cut from the RBNZ at the upcoming meeting. We have seen a drop in the Kiwi rate to a fresh yearly low on the back of cross related AUDNZD demand. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK retail sales, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone, German, and UK PMI reads, Canada housing, Canada retail sales, and US Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

  • R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
  • R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
  • S1 5857 – 15 November low – Medium
  • S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
  • R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
  • S1 2537 – 14 November low – Medium
  • S2 2500 – Round Number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

Peformance chart: 30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)

Suggested reading

Daily Reports Global FX Insights   joelkruger  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.