Mild reaction to impeachment, BOE ahead

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market has seen a recovery out from the lowest levels since 2016, with the price now pushing back above the weekly Ichimoku cloud to signal a bullish structural shift. Ultimately, only back below the 1.2500 handle would compromise the newly established constructive medium and longer-term outlook. Next key resistance comes in the form of the monthly high from September 2017 at 1.3658, with setbacks expected to be well supported ahead of 1.2900.

• R2 1.3515 – 13 December/2019 high – Strong
• R1 1.3230 – 12 December high – Medium
• S1 1.3060 – 18 December low – Medium
• S2 1.3050 – 12 December low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Rating agencies were out upgrading the UK's debt rating status, while economic data in mixed with CPI hotter and PPI cooler. The Pound continued its post UK election sell off, with the market still worrying about Boris Johnson's pledge to leave in December 2020, with or without a deal. Looking ahead, we get UK retail sales, a BOE decision, and US data in the form of the Philly Fed survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales.

USDJPY – technical overview

Despite rally attempts, the longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact. Rallies should continue to be well capped below 110.00 on a monthly closes basis, with deeper setbacks anticipated towards a retest of the yearly low, below which exposes critical support in the form of the 2016 low at 99.00 further down.

• R2 110.00 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 109.73 – 2 December high – Medium
• S1 108.43 – 4 December low – Medium
• S2 108.24 – 14 November low  – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The BOJ was out and left policy on hold as widely expected. The Yen is trying to figure out what this latest news around President Trump's impeachment will mean for markets, and we suspect this will have a lot to do with the direction of the currency for the remainder of the day. On the domestic front, Japan's Cabinet Office is now forecasting 2020 GDP growth of 1.4% vs 1.2% in July, in the wake of the recently-launched economic stimulus package. Looking ahead, we get US data in the form of the Philly Fed survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.1060 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Below 1.0800 exposes the 1.0600 area.

• R2 1.1173 – 2 July high – Strong
• R1 1.1060 – 17 October high – Medium
• S1 1.0864 – 14 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0811 – 4 September/2019 low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has been under pressure over the past several months, but has also been well supported on dips. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported above 0.6700 on a weekly close basis.

• R2 0.7000 –Psychological – Strong
• R1 0.6940 – 13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6838 – 17 December low – Medium
• S2 0.6754 – 29 November low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is getting a nice boost on Thursday from the much better than expected round of Aussie employment data. Looking ahead, we get US data in the form of the Philly Fed survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales.

USDCAD – technical overview

The longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for renewed upside, eventually back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. At this point, only a weekly close below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would compromise this outlook.

• R2 1.3270 – 6 December high – Strong
• R1 1.3205 - 13 December high – Medium
• S1 1.3102 – 18 December low – Medium
• S2 1.3042 – 29 October low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar took in an as expected round of Canada inflation data on Wednesday, but got a boost from news out of the White House. The US administration said it would be moving forward with a plan to allow Americans to import prescription drugs from Canada. Looking ahead, we get Canada employment and wholesale sales, along with US data in the form of the Philly Fed survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Despite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market rallying out from longer-term cycle low area around 0.6200. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of a continued recovery. Only a weekly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6500 strengthens the outlook and takes the immediate pressure off the downside, with focus now on a test of next meaningful resistance in the form of the July 2019 high at 0.6791 .

• R2 0.6664 – 26 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6636 –  13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6522 – 11 December hlow – Medium
• S2 0.6466 – 4 November high – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has received a fresh jolt on Thursday, after Kiwi GDP data came in above forecast. Looking ahead, we get US data in the form of the Philly Fed survey, initial jobless claims, existing home sales.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

There have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in at 3070, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3200 would be required to compromise the outlook.

• R2 3250 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 3201 – 16 December/Record high – Medium
• S1 3070 – 3 December low – Medium
• S2 3000 – Psychological – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Although we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs in 2019, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment despite any signs that would suggest otherwise. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1600, while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.

• R2 1558 – 4 September/2019 high – Strong
• R1 1536 – 24 September high – Medium
• S1 1445 – 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1400 – Psychological – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

The market continues to correct in the aftermath of a major surge in the second quarter of 2019. However, any setbacks should be very well supported in the 6,000 area, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,750 would compromise the constructive outlook.

• R2 10,468– 26 October high – Strong
• R1 8,806 – 11 October high – Medium
• S1 6,500 – Psychological – Strong
• S2 5,755 – Internal support/June 2018 – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Bitcoin is going through a period of technical adjustment after the fierce Q2 run up, though we anticipate continued demand from institutional players starved for yield in a world where global equities are increasingly vulnerable. Plenty of demand is reported on dips down towards $6,000.

BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

The market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 100 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 100 would compromise the outlook.

• R2 225 – 19 September high – Strong
• R1 200 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 117 – 18 December low – Medium
• S2 102 – 6 February/2019 low  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

Profit taking in the aftermath of the rapid Q2 appreciation has triggered a healthy period of correction and consolidation, while critique of the space from the likes of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, along with worry associated with fallout in the global economy, are stories that could continue to keep the more risk correlated crypto asset weighed down into the end of the year. Risk off in the global economy is expected to result in ETH underperformance relative to Bitcoin.