Next 24 hours: There will be blood
Today’s report: How OIL did the unthinkable and went negative
A major disruption in the OIL price has cast a dark cloud on global markets to start the week. On Monday, the May contract for WTI crude OIL did the unthinkable, collapsing to a record low and deep into negative territory.
Wake-up call
- ZEW reads
- UK employment
- Two-way flow
- EURCHFSNB policy runs into tough times
- RBA Minutes
- OIL dump
- relax measures
- Investor confidence
- hard asset
- macro players
- more exposed
Suggested reading
- Take OIL Plunge Seriously, Not Literally, R. Burgess, Bloomberg (April 20, 2020)
- OIL Traders Cannot Give Away US Crude, N. Randewich, Reuters (April 20, 2020)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
A higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for the major pair to be well supported into dips ahead of the next big run towards the 2019 high at 1.1570. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.0700 would compromise this outlook.EURUSD – fundamental overview
The latest reports have ECB officials talking about a 'Eurozone bad bank' that would take billions of Euros in debt off lenders' balance sheets. Meanwhile, ECB's Guindos said the central bank 'could take further action if needed.' There was some reassurance from the Bundesbank, which said 'there should be no fear that the German economy will enter a self-reinforcing downward spiral.' Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar include Eurozone and German ZEWs, and US existing home sales.EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
The market has rebounded sharply, after collapsing to a +30 year low below 1.1500. This supports the longer-term constructive outlook, with a major bottom sought out ahead of the start to a big run to the topside back through 1.3000. Look for the major pair to hold up above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis for confirmation.GBPUSD – fundamental overview
BoE Broadbent said he sees 'powerful demand effects' from the coronavirus which is 'also hitting economic supply,' and BoE Aldine called for the UK government to 'fully back loans to smaller businesses in order to ease a logjam in applications.' UK PM Johnson's spokesman James Slack said 'a second peak of the coronavirus' is 'the big concern' and would ultimately 'do most damage to health and the economy.' Former UK Chancellor Osborne said a period of austerity will be needed post-crisis to deal with the fiscal damage from the pandemic. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar include UK employment, and US existing home sales.USDJPY – technical overview
We're seeing a pickup in volatility in the major pair, with the market swinging wildly through the upper and lower bound of a massive triangle. Still, there is no clear direction in sight, with rallies well capped above 110.00 and dips well supported below 104.00.USDJPY – fundamental overview
The major pair has been caught between offsetting flow, with broad based US Dollar demand contending with risk off associated with falling equities and declining OIL. Looking ahead, US existing home sales is the only notable standout on the calendar.EURCHF – technical overview
The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.0710 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Technicals are however looking extended and the market should be well supported around 1.0500.EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook, and from a US administration that has put Switzerland on its currency manipulator watchlist. Any signs of risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.AUDUSD – technical overview
Technical studies are in the process of unwinding, after the market traded down to its lowest levels since 2003. There is evidence of a longer-term bottom, though the market will need to break back above the December 2019 high at 0.7032 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Not a whole lot of insight from the RBA Minutes, though the Australian Dollar is under pressure into Tuesday, on the back of the latest slide in global risk sentiment. Looking ahead, the market will be digesting RBA Lowe comments, while continuing to focus on the bigger picture flow. We also get US existing home sales later on.USDCAD – technical overview
An intense market rally has stalled out just ahead of the 2016 high. At this stage, there is risk for a more meaningful period of correction, with potential for setbacks to extend back down towards previous resistance turned support, in the form of the 2018 high at 1.3665.USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Loonie is under pressure to start the week, as WTI May OIL shocks global markets, plummeting to a record low (negative print) on concern the US is running out of storage space. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar include Canada retail sales, and US existing home sales.NZDUSD – technical overview
There's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market looking quite extended after dipping below major psychological support at 0.5500. As such, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported in the weeks ahead, in anticipation of additional upside. Only a weekly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink.NZDUSD – fundamental overview
The New Zealand Dollar is under a little pressure to start the week, with some risk off flow factoring into the price action. New Zealand is expected to relax its nationwide lockdown on April 27, as recent measures have proven to be effective in flattening the curve. We didn't see much of a reaction to the latest inflation data out of New Zealand, which came in hotter than expected. Looking ahead, US existing home sales is the only notable standout on the calendar.US SPX 500 – technical overview
Setbacks have been intense as the market puts in a longer-term top. The market has collapsed through the 2018 low, with the next major support coming in at the 2016 low around 1800. Extended readings have led to an overdue corrective bounce, but rallies should now be well capped ahead of 3000.US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Although we've seen attempts at recovery in response to unlimited QE from the Fed and massive US stimulus, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for additional runs to the topside, on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front, geopolitical risk, and ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout, should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2020.GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1800 (measured move extension target, 2012 high), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1500.GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, coronavirus fallout, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.BTCUSD – technical overview
Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of the 2018 low, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,000 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,500 further encourages the bullish prospect.BTCUSD – fundamental overview
Bitcoin has felt the impact of global macro pressures, with the currency falling victim to the broad based risk liquidation in Q1 2020. However, despite the recent slide, there continues to be good demand from players looking out to the medium and longer term, who see Bitcoin as a safe haven, store of value asset.BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overview
The market is in the process of attempting to establish a meaningful base after stalling out in the latter half of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above the 2018 low, in favour of another big bounce, eventually back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363.ETHUSD – fundamental overview
While there is plenty of Ether demand built up, with so much optimism around prospects for the blockchain, given all of the development going on in the decentralised finance space, macroeconomics will likely play a negative role in 2020, with Ether expected to underperform in a mostly risk off backdrop, in light of Ethereum's higher sensitivity and correlation with risk themes.