Next 24 hours: Trying to figure out the market's next move
Today’s report: Should we be concerned stocks aren't trading a lot higher?
We come into Wednesday with markets treading cautiously. Remember, the market had come under pressure in response to last week’s Fed decision and on worry about second wave corona, before finding its footing on the one two punch of Fed corporate bond buying and the US government announcing a USD1 trillion infrastructure spending plan.
Wake-up call
- construction output
- UK inflation
- Powell testimony
- EURCHFSNB policy still faces tough challenges
- downbeat projections
- inflation data
- RBNZ Orr
- Stocks vulnerable
- hard asset
- Traditional players
- more exposed
Suggested reading
- Why Goldman Is Siding With China on This Huawei Play, S. Ren, Bloomberg (June 17, 2020)
- Has Sweden's Coronavirus Strategy Failed?, R. Milne, Financial Times (June 16, 2020)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
A higher low is now sought out above the multi-year low from 2017, ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for the major pair to be well supported into dips ahead of the next big run thtough the 2019 high at 1.1570. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.0700 would compromise this outlook.EURUSD – fundamental overview
Tuesday's round of economic data out of the Eurozone was solid, but didn't really factor into price action. Instead, it seemed as though the Euro was more caught up with the bigger picture macro themes and where the market was holding as far as risk sentiment was concerned. ECB Panetta was on the wires saying that launching the EU Recovery Fund was 'extremely urgent, and the aim should be to deploy it as soon as possible, no later than early 2021.' Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of Eurozone construction output and inflation, speeches from ECB Mersch and Guindos, US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
The market has rebounded sharply, after collapsing to a +30 year low below 1.1500. This supports the longer-term constructive outlook, with a major bottom sought out ahead of the start to a big run to the topside back through 1.3000. Look for the major pair to hold up well into setbacks, and ultimately above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis for confirmation.GBPUSD – fundamental overview
Tuesday's round of UK employment data came in mixed, which didn't have much influence on price action. Meanwhile the Pound continued to follow along with developments out from the Brexit negotiation front, which have been back and forth as far as getting a deal done by the deadline goes. There has been some broad based demand for the US Dollar that has come into play, which has weighed on the Pound a bit. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of UK inflation reads, US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.USDJPY – technical overview
We're seeing signs of a pickup in volatility in the major pair, with the market chopping around quite a bit. Still, there is no clear directional insight, with the price confined to a larger triangle formation. Overall, rallies have been well capped above 110.00 and dips well supported below 104.00.USDJPY – fundamental overview
Earlier this week, the BOJ left policy on hold as widely expected, though did produce a slightly more dovish take on the outlook. At the moment, the Yen is trying to figure out its next move, and a lot of this will come down to the direction in US equities. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.EURCHF – technical overview
The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A weekly close back above 1.1000 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of renewed risk liquidation in 2020, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.AUDUSD – technical overview
Technical studies have turned up in recent weeks, after the market traded down to its lowest levels since 2003 earlier this year. There is evidence of a longer-term bottom, though at this stage, there is risk for a pullback to allow for shorter term studies to unwind. Setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 0.6000.AUDUSD – fundamental overview
The Australian Dollar may be coming under a little more pressure into Wednesday, after ANZ came out with downbeat projections for growth. As far as central bank activity goes, the RBA injected AUD2.79 billion of liquidity in today's operations. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.USDCAD – technical overview
Has been in the process of correcting since topping out earlier this year above 1.4600. At this stage, with the correction well extended, the market is likely to find solid support in the 1.3200-1.3400 area, ahead of a resumption of gains. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 1.3300 would suggest otherwise.USDCAD – fundamental overview
Things have been quiet on the economic data front in Canada, while the price of OIL has mostly been consolidating, leaving the Loonie it a bit of holding pattern at the moment. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of Canada inflation reads, US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.NZDUSD – technical overview
There's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, after the market collapsed below massive psychological support at 0.5500 earlier this year. A break back above the 0.6600 area would be required to officially put this market in an uptrend on the weekly chart, though daily studies are now trending up with any setbacks expected to be well supported ahead of 0.6000.NZDUSD – fundamental overview
The New Zealand Dollar is looking to take its directional cues from global risk sentiment, and at the moment, has been trading mostly sideways. Earlier, RBNZ Orr was on the wires highlighting the central bank was pleased with the impact of QE thus far and more could be added going forward. In today's operations, the RBNZ bought NZD305 million government bonds. Other headlines include the news that New Zealand will begin trade talks with the UK in mid-July. Looking ahead, key standouts on the calendar come in the form of US housing starts and building permits, and more Fed Chair Powell testimony.US SPX 500 – technical overview
The market has been in recovery mode since bottoming out in March. Still, the recovery is classified as corrective, with a lower top sought out below the record high from February, ahead of the next major downside extension, eventually back below the March low.US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Although we've seen attempts at recovery in response to unlimited QE from the Fed and massive US stimulus, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for additional runs to the topside, on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front, geopolitical risk, and ongoing worry associated with recovery post coronavirus, should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in 2020.GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move towards and through the record high (just ahead of 2000), following a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1800 (measured move extension target, 2012 high), while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1500.GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, coronavirus fallout, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.BTCUSD – technical overview
Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of the 2018 low, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,000 would compromise the constructive outlook. Back above 10,500 further encourages the bullish prospect. Shorter studies are however stretched and warn of a pullback ahead.BTCUSD – fundamental overview
Bitcoin has enjoyed a nice recovery since bottoming in March, with the runup in stocks and hype around the halving event contributing to a lot of the momentum. Interest from well known traditional market participants is helping to generate plenty of buzz as well. At the same time, given the extended nature of technical readings into important resistance, we see this as timing well for a sell the fact with the halving event now officially behind us and global equities once again looking vulnerable.BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overview
The market is in the process of attempting to establish a meaningful base after stalling out in the latter half of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above the 2018 low, in favour of another big bounce, eventually back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363.ETHUSD – fundamental overview
While there is plenty of Ether demand built up, with so much optimism around prospects for the blockchain, given all of the development going on in the decentralised finance space, macroeconomics will likely play a negative role in 2020, with Ether expected to underperform in a mostly risk off backdrop, in light of Ethereum's higher sensitivity and correlation with risk themes.