Investors looking for confidence boost

Today’s report: Investors looking for confidence boost

The story in financial markets continues to revolve around a dip in investor confidence on account of unpredictable Trump policies and a run of economic data out of the US that has come in on the softer side. This is not a pretty combination and one that has translated to a notable downturn in US equities.

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

Choose pair:

EURUSD – technical overview

The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips towards parity, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276 in the days ahead. Only a monthly close below 1.0000 negates.

  • R2 1.0937 – 6 November high – Medium
  • R1 1.0854 - 6 March/2025 high  – Medium
  • S1 1.0700 - Figure – Medium
  • S2 1.0602 – 5 March low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

As per our special report preview this week, the Euro has been exceptionally well bid and has retained its bid in the aftermath of an ECB decision that produced a hawkish cut. Indeed, the ECB went ahead with what had been a widely anticipated rate cut. At the same time, there was a clear signs policymakers were becoming a lot more cautious about further rate cuts. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
  • R1 1.2924 – 6 March/2025 high – Medium
  • S1 1.2800 –  Figure – Medium
  • S2 1.2768 – 5 March low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Most of this week's impressive gains in the Pound come from a market looking for an alternative to the US Dollar amidst uncertainty around US administration policies and a dovish shift in Fed rate pricing. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. Back above 151.31 strengthens the case for longer-term uptrend resumption.

  • R2 151.31 – 3 March high – Strong
  • R1 150.00 –Psychological – Medium
  • S1 147.31 – 6 March/2025 low – Medium
  • S2 147.00 – Figure – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen continues to benefit from hawkish BOJ rhetoric, Japan economic data, shifting Fed expectations and broad based US Dollar selling. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

  • R1 0.6409 – 21 February/2025 high – Strong
  • R2 0.6365 – 6 March high – Medium
  • S1 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
  • S2 0.6164 – 17 January low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar is facing some headwinds from lower global equities, a dip in Aussie household spending, and discouraging import numbers out of China. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

  • R2 1.4595 – 30 January high – Strong
  • R1 1.4544 – 4 March high – Medium
  • S1 1.4239 – 6 March low – Medium
  • S2 1.4151 – 14 February/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Cooler heads have prevailed, the tariffs have once again been delayed, and the Canadian Dollar has extended its recovery as a consequence. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

  • R2 0.5818 – 12 December high – Medium
  • R1 0.5773 – 21 February/2025 high – Medium
  • S1 0.5585 – 28 February low – Medium
  • S2 0.5541 – 13 January low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is having a hard time holding up into the end of the week as global sentiment sours, weighing on the risk correlated commodity currency. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German factory orders, an ECB Lagarde speech, Eurozone GDP and unemployment, the monthly employment reports out of Canada and the US, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5677, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

  • R2 6152 – 19 February/Record high – Strong
  • R1 6014 – 26 February high – Medium
  • S1 5718 – 16 March/2025 low – Medium
  • S2 5677 – October 2024 low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this as 2025 gets going.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

  • R2 3000 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 2957 – 24 February/Record high – Medium
  • S1 2833 – 28 February low – Medium
  • S2 2730 – 27 January low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

Peformance chart: 30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)

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Daily Reports Global FX Insights   joelkruger  

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