Three stories driving markets right now

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2834 – 6 November low – Medium
• R1 1.2770 – 13 November high –Medium
• S1 1.2597– 15 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2500 – Psychlogical – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is trying to find some demand after taking a hard hit the other week. A lot of the recent demand is coming from medium and longer-term players looking to buy into dips. Other than that, things have mixed in recent sessions after BOE Bailey talked of lingering wage pressure while BOE Mann hinted at aggressive rate cuts. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK inflation reads, the ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurozone construction output, and an ECB Lagarde speech.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 157.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 156.75 – 15 November high – Medium
• S1 153.28 – 19 November low – Medium
• S2 152.14 – 8 November low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Verbal intervention efforts are having little to no impact on the Yen as the currency continues to slide lower against the Buck. Earlier today, Japan trade data came out on the better side of expectation with a much larger than expected increase in exports. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK inflation reads, the ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurozone construction output, and an ECB Lagarde speech.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6688 – 7 November high – Strong
• R2 0.6547 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6440 –14 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Some mixed signals out of Australia today. On the one side, there was disappointment that the PBOC left its 1 and 5 year loan prime rate unchanged. On the other side, the Westpac-MI leading index saw the six month annualized growth rate rise into positive territory. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK inflation reads, the ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurozone construction output, and an ECB Lagarde speech.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4200 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.4106 – 15 November/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3930 – 13 November low – Medium
• S2 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Finally some relief for the Canadian Dollar after Canada CPI came in hotter than expected. This has opened a healthy shift in expectations around future Bank of Canada moves. The market has trimmed odds for a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting from 60% to just 30%. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK inflation reads, the ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurozone construction output, and an ECB Lagarde speech.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6038 – 7 November high – Strong
• R1 0.5948 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5839 – 14 November/2024 low – Medium
• S2 0.5800 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Much like its Aussie cousin, the New Zealand Dollar was weighed down earlier today on disappointment that the PBOC left its 1 and 5 year loan prime rate unchanged. Other than that, the focus remains on expectations around a 50 basis point cut from the RBNZ at the upcoming meeting. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK inflation reads, the ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurozone construction output, and an ECB Lagarde speech.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5857 – 15 November low – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2537 – 14 November low – Medium
• S2 2500 – Round Number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.