Trump trade back in full swing

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• S1 1.2822– 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has come back under pressure on the Trump trade and on distress out of the UK after business insolvencies dominate headlines, rising 64% from a year ago. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.72 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Price action has been mostly quiet on Tuesday as the Yen waits to take in Japan machine tool orders. If orders beat expectations we should see some more Yen demand as it will signal improving labor market conditions and private consumption. This will fuel the BOJ case for another rate hike sooner than later. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has been dragged lower on Tuesday despite the release of solid NAB business confidence and conditions data. It seems worry around US tariffs imposed by the incoming US administration is weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Trump trade is back in full swing, commodities have come under intense pressure and risk sentiment has been turning down. All of this is factoring into the renewed bout of Canadian Dollar weakness. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5912 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The speculation around tough US tariffs from the incoming administration has weighed on Asian equities and risk correlated FX. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2602 – 10 October low – Medium
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.