Dollar selling off ahead of Friday jobs report

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The latest push to a fresh 2024 high beyond 1.2830 confirms the outlook and opens the door for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2600 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.2570 – 29 April high – Medium
• S1 1.2448 – 25 April low – Medium
• S2 1.2393 – 22 April high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has been able to shrug off a downbeat outlook from the OECD, with the currency finding demand on the back of broad based US Dollar selling post this week's dovish read of the Fed decision. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK PMI reads, Eurozone unemployment, and the monthly employment report out of the US.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook.

• R2 156.29 – 2 May high – Medium
• R1 153.74 – 3 May high – Medium
• S1 152.59 – 12 April low – Medium
• S2 151.98 – 27 March high – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

There has been no official confirmation of intervention out of Japan over the past week, though there is every indication to suspect this to be the case, with the Yen racing higher and grossly outperforming all other currencies over this time frame. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK PMI reads, Eurozone unemployment, and the monthly employment report out of the US.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6668– 8 March high – Strong
• R2 0.6600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6465– 1 May low low – Medium
• S2 0.6362 – 19 April/2024 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has been performing better following this week's more dovish leaning Fed and hawkish comments from RBA Kearns. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK PMI reads, Eurozone unemployment, and the monthly employment report out of the US.

USDCAD – technical overview

Above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3785 – 30 April high – Medium
• S1 1.3632 – 29 April low – Medium
• S2 1.3547 – 9 April low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Concerning economic data out of Canada as reflected through GDP, manufacturing PMIs and trade, along with a lower price of oil, and a report out of the National Bank of Canada, have all been behind this week's run of underperformance in the Canadian Dollar. The other day, the National Bank of Canada said it saw the Bank of Canada outpacing the Fed on rate cuts. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK PMI reads, Eurozone unemployment, and the monthly employment report out of the US.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6083 – 10 April high – Strong
• R1 0.6000 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 0.5852 – 19 April 2024 low – Medium
• S2 0.5800 – Figure – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has held up well after some discouraging local data focusing more on broad based US Dollar outflows and renewed demand for US equities post the more dovish leaning Fed decision. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK PMI reads, Eurozone unemployment, and the monthly employment report out of the US.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies continue to look quite extended after pushing to fresh record highs, begging for a deeper correction ahead. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. Next key support comes in at 4921.

• R2 5287 – 1 April high/Record – Strong
• R1 5194 – 8 March high – Medium
• S1 4928– 19 April low – Medium
• S2 4921 – 13 February low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Though we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. The trouble right now is that inflation has been showing signs of ticking back up, all while the market contends with additional uncertainty around geopolitical risk.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1900 on a monthly close basis ahead of the next major upside extension towards 2500.

• R2 2500 – Psychological – Medium
• R1 2432 – 12 April/Record high – Medium
• S1 2282 – 1 May low – Medium
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.