Key event risk and economic data

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a correction phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh multi-month highs in 2021. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3000 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high. Back above 1.3835 takes pressure off the downside.

• R2 1.3354 – 4 March high – Strong
• R1 1.3239 – 7 March high – Medium
• S1 1.3082 – 8 March low – Medium
• S2 1.3000 – Psychological – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The UK joined in with the US on a Russia oil embargo and will look to phase out Russian oil over a period of months. At the same time, the UK won't ban Russian gas. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and US inflation data.

USDJPY – technical overview

The longer-term trend is bearish despite the recent run higher. Look for additional upside to be limited, with scope for a topside failure and bearish resumption back down towards the 100.00 area. It would take a clear break back above 117.00 to negate the outlook.

• R2 116.36 – 4 January high – Strong
• R1 116.20 – 10 March high – Medium
• S1 114.41 – 24 February low – Medium
• S2 113.47 – 24 January low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

There hasn't been much to focus on here other than traditional market drivers of US Dollar sentiment and global risk appetite. The net result has been a currency mostly trading sideways. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and US inflation data.

AUDUSD – technical overview

At this stage, the market has found a bottom and is trying to work back to the topside. Ultimately, it will take a break back above 0.7600 to shift the focus back on the topside. A weekly close below 0.7000 will force a bearish shift.

• R2 0.7442 – 7 March/2022 high – Strong
• R1 0.7400 – 4 March high – Medium
• S1 0.7245 – 8 March low – Medium
• S2 0.7200 – Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The commodities rally has stalled out, but risk markets have found support and RBA Lowe has come out with hawkish comments. The Aussie rate market is now pricing five 25bp hikes in 2022. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and US inflation data.

USDCAD – technical overview

Finally signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. A recent weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

• R2 1.2964 – 20 December/2021 high – Strong
• R1 1.2901 – 8 March/2022 high – Medium
• S1 1.2796 – 8 March low – Medium
• S2 1.2587 – 3 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The parabolic run in the price of OIL has come to a halt. At the same time, risk markets have been feeling better, which ultimately has been offsetting for the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and US inflation data.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Setbacks have intensified in recent weeks with the market trading down to fresh multi-month lows. A recent breakdown below the 0.6700 area opens the door for a drop towards 0.6500 in the sessions ahead.

• R2 0.6926 – 7 March/2022 high – Strong
• R1 0.6900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6741 – 1 March low – Medium
• S2 0.6700 – Figure – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

A resurgence in global risk appetite and ongoing support for commodities prices have kept the New Zealand Dollar well in demand this week. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and US inflation data.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. The latest breakdown below 4,272 opens the door for the next major downside extension towards 3,500. Back above 4,612 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 4490 – 16 February high – Strong
• R1 4422 – 3 March high – Medium
• S1 4105 – 24 February low – Strong
• S2 4035 – 13 May low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

With so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout, rising inflation, and geopolitical tension should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in Q1 2022.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1900.

• R2 2076 – Record high, August 2020 – Strong
• R1 2071 – 8 March/2022 high – Medium
• S1 1914 – 2 March low – Medium
• S2 1878 – 16 November high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, coronavirus fallout, inflation risk, and geopolitical tension. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.