Maybe not so transitory

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a consolidation phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh 2021 and multi-month highs. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3200 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high.

• R2 1.3751 – 23 September high – Strong
• R1 1.3659 – 8 October high – Medium
• S1 1.3412 – 29 September/2021 low – Medium
• S2 1.3400 – Figure – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The market had been more aggressive with BOE rate hike forecasts into the new week before perhaps reconsidering those bets a bit on Monday. At the moment, UK money markets have a 15 bp hike priced for December, and 25 bps for February and August 2022. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEWs, US JOLTs job openings, US consumer inflation expectations, and scattered central bank speak from various ECB and Fed officials.

USDJPY – technical overview

The longer-term trend is bearish despite the recent run higher. Look for additional upside to be limited, with scope for a topside failure and bearish resumption back down towards the 100.00 area. It would take a clear break back above 114.55 to negate the outlook.

• R2 114.00 – Figure– Strong
• R1 113.49 – 12 October/2021 high – Medium
• S1 112.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 110.82 – 4 October low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen continues to get smoked on the back of rising oil prices and the threat of rising global yields. There is now chatter that PM Kishida will be backing down with the corporate tax hike proposal as a consequence. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEWs, US JOLTs job openings, US consumer inflation expectations, and scattered central bank speak from various ECB and Fed officials.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The Australian Dollar has been in the process of a healthy correction following the impressive run towards a retest of the 2018 high earlier this year. At this stage, there is risk for additional declines, though setbacks are expected to be well supported down into the 0.7000 area. Look for a weekly close above 0.7500 to force a shift in the structure.

• R2 0.7410 – 10 September high – Strong
• R1 0.7373 – 11 October high – Medium
• S1 0.7226 – 6 October low – Medium
• S2 0.7170 – 29 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

We've been seeing a bit of a short squeeze in the Australian Dollar, this after the latest CFTC positioning report showed Aussie shorts at their highest levels since 2015. Still, there have been renewed offers on Tuesday as risk comes off and global markets worry about the prospects for economic recovery. Rallying commodities prices have also contributed to the demand. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEWs, US JOLTs job openings, US consumer inflation expectations, and scattered central bank speak from various ECB and Fed officials.

USDCAD – technical overview

Finally signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. A recent weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

• R2 1.2775 – 29 September high – Strong
• R1 1.2648 – 6 October high – Medium
• S1 1.2446– 11 October low – Medium
• S2 1.2422 – 30 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Things were mostly quiet for the Canadian Dollar on Monday, with Canada out for Thanksgiving. The Loonie has been well bid of late, helped along by rising oil and strong local data. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEWs, US JOLTs job openings, US consumer inflation expectations, and scattered central bank speak from various ECB and Fed officials.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has entered a period of consolidation after running up to a yearly and multi-month high. At this stage, rallies should be well capped and there is still room for deeper setbacks into the 0.6500-0.6800 area before we see an attempt at a higher low and resumption of upside pressure. Back above the April high at 0.7317 would be required to force a shift in the structure.

• R2 0.7094 – 23 September high – Medium
• R1 0.6982 – 4 October high – Medium
• S1 0.6860 – 29 September low – Medium
• S2 0.6809 – 19 August/2021 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar's is trying its best to find support from last week's rate hike and a better than expected budget deficit. At the same time, broader risk liquidation on global growth concerns and rising coronavirus cases in New Zealand are offsetting the demand. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEWs, US JOLTs job openings, US consumer inflation expectations, and scattered central bank speak from various ECB and Fed officials.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are looking quite exhausted and the market is showing signs of wanting to roll over after racing to another record high. Look for rallies to be well capped ahead of 4600, with a break back below 4353 to strengthen the outlook.

• R2 4552 – 3 September/Record high – Strong
• R1 4485 – 27 September high – Medium
• S1 4272 – 1 October low – Medium
• S2 4233 – 19 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We're trading just off fresh record highs, and yet, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout and risk of rising inflation should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment into Q4 2021.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and an acceleration beyond the next major psychological barrier at 2000. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600.

• R2 1917 – 1 June high – Strong
• R1 1835 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 1700 – Round number – Medium
• S2 1677 – 8 March/2021 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, and coronavirus fallout. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. [audio mp3="https://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/09/15seplmaxaudio.mp3"][/audio]