Risk on flow could be deceptive

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a correction phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh multi-month highs in 2021. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3000 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high. Back above 1.3835 takes immediate pressure off the downside. Only a weekly close below 1.3000 will force a shift in the outlook.

• R2 1.3225 – 25 March high – Medium
• R1 1.3183 – 30 March high – Medium
• S1 1.3000 – Psychological – Medium
• S2 1.2973 – 13 April/2022 low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

A strong performance for the Pound on Wednesday, this after another round of hot inflation data. All of this increases the probability the BOE will be needing to lean even more aggressively to the hawkish side of policy. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market has rocketed higher to its highest levels since 2002 after breaking through the 2015 high. Technical studies are however quite extended, with scope for a sizable correction in the weeks ahead.

• R2 127.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 126.32 – 13 April/2022 high – Medium
• S1 124.76 – 12 April low – Medium
• S2 123.46 – 6 April low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen continues to take its hits from the massive yield differential and monetary policy divergence between the BOJ and Fed. The BOJ has vowed to continue printing Yen and to keep up with easy monetary policy. The Yen has now traded to its lowest levels against the Buck in 20 years. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overview

At this stage, the market has found a bottom and is trying to work back to the topside. Ultimately, it will take a weekly close back above 0.7600 to officially shift the focus back on the topside.

• R2 0.7662 – 5 April/2022 high – Strong
• R1 0.7500 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 0.7400 – 12 April low – Medium
• S2 0.7361 – 18 March low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has done a good job holding up in the face of a softer round of economic data this week, with the currency more focused on rallying commodities, the recovery in global sentiment and rebound in US equities. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overview

Signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. A recent weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

• R2 1.2699 – 17 March high – Strong
• R1 1.2677 – 13 April high  – Medium
• S1 1.2429 – 30 March low – Medium
• S2 1.2403 – 5 April/2022 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has rallied sharply in the aftermath of the latest Bank of Canada policy decision. Not only did the BOC go ahead and hike 50bps, the central bank also retained a hawkish tone, highlighting the need for additional rate hikes. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has been trending lower since topping out in 2021, making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Look for the latest recovery rally to set up the next lower top for a bearish continuation below 0.6500. Back above 0.7200 would be required to negate and force a shift in the structure.

• R2 0.7100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 0.7035 – 5 April/2022 high – Strong
• S1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• S2 0.6754 – 13 April low – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar had taken a shot on Wednesday, despite a 50bp RBNZ hike, this after the central bank delivered a dovish communication. But into Thursday, we're already seeing renewed demand, mostly on the back of a recovery in global sentiment. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, US retail sales, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from extended readings off record highs. Look for rallies to be well capped in favor of lower tops and lower lows. Back above 4,700 will be required at a minimum to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 4700 – Round number – Strong
• R1 4641 – 29 March high – Medium
• S1 4374 – 18 March low – Medium
• S2 4330 – 17 March low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

With so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout, rising inflation, and geopolitical tension should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment in Q2 2022.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1900.

• R2 2076 – Record high, August 2020 – Strong
• R1 2071 – 8 March/2022 high – Medium
• S1 1900 – Round number – Medium
• S2 1878 – 16 November high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, coronavirus fallout, inflation risk, and geopolitical tension. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.