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Global FX insights – daily market analysis

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Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Next 24 hours: Eurozone jobless rate ticks up, ECB stays patient

Today’s report: Dollar steadies as Powell hints at rate cut delay

Strong economic data, including ISM prices paid and JOLTS job openings, briefly bolstered the U.S. dollar, along with comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who indicated uncertainty around the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies was delaying a potential rate cut. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar dives as Fed rate cut bets grow

Today’s report: The US Dollar’s structural challenges

Despite U.S. interest rates exceeding those of most G10 peers and the dollar being considered oversold, it’s struggling to gain traction. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s reluctance to cut rates is delaying what could be an even sharper decline. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, June 30, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar suffers amid trade tensions


Sunday, June 29, 2025

Today’s report: Trump’s trade moves shake markets

The U.S. dollar stabilized into last week’s close, as Treasury yields paused and the S&P 500 hit new year-to-date highs, with markets encouraged by progress in trade deals with the UK, China, and potentially India, alongside possible extensions to the July 9 tariff deadline. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, June 26, 2025

Today’s report: Euro extends to another yearly high

Reports from the Wall Street Journal have opened more downside pressure on the Buck, while fueling fresh 2025 highs in currencies like the Euro and Pound. These reports say President Trump is frustrated with the Federal Reserve’s slow approach to cutting interest rates. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Next 24 hours: Fed rate cut speculation grows

Today’s report: Ceasefire holds, Fed rate cuts in focus

The Israel-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, easing geopolitical tensions, while markets focus on rising odds of Fed rate cuts by July, with Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today at 2:00 PM GMT expected to provide further clarity. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar dips as Trump touts ceasefire

Today’s report: Ceasefire hope fuels uptick in risk appetite

President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on social media, though Iran’s Foreign Minister denied a formal agreement, stating attacks would stop if Israel ceased aggression by 4 am Tehran time. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, June 23, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar surges post Iran strikes

Today’s report: Dollar holds firm amid geopolitical risks

Last week’s soft U.S. economic data, including a weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and a negative Leading Index print, has fueled speculation about Federal Reserve policy, with Governor Waller advocating for proactive rate cuts despite a cautious committee. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, June 19, 2025

Next 24 hours: Focus on BOE with US market out

Today’s report: Fed holds rates, Dollar wobbles

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate as anticipated, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts for the year, though nearly as many members projected none, showing a close split. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Special report: FOMC decision preview

Today’s report: US Dollar holds firm despite data misses

Despite recent U.S. economic data misses, the US Dollar remains strong, gaining notably against the Pound, which fell below 1.3500. U.S. stock futures show resilience, but escalating Israel-Iran tension raises concerns, with oil prices climbing amid fears of U.S. involvement. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Next 24 hours: US retail sales data stands out

Today’s report: Treasury yields steady, Fed meeting looms

The U.S. dollar continues to get sold into rallies despite escalating Middle East tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and President Trump’s call for Tehran’s evacuation. U.S. stock futures have dipped only slightly after Monday’s strong gains across major indexes led by tech and consumer stocks. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, June 16, 2025

Next 24 hours: China data mixed, ECB hints at rate flexibility

Today’s report: Geopolitics driving dollar, oil prices

The U.S. dollar remains steady but slightly stronger against risk-sensitive currencies as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, with no signs of de-escalation after four days of strikes. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, June 13, 2025

Today’s report: Israel-Iran clash triggers investor panic

A surprise Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities has rattled global markets, sending global equities lower as investors flock to safe-haven assets. Amid this turmoil, attention is also on the upcoming University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, June 12, 2025

Next 24 hours: Euro hits 2025 high as ECB signals end to cuts

Today’s report: Fed cuts loom as markets wobble

Global markets are jittery as President Trump intensifies trade negotiations, announcing plans to send formal letters to trading partners within two weeks outlining unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests a possible extension of the current tariff pause for countries negotiating in good faith. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Next 24 hours: US Dollar swings ahead of CPI data

Today’s report: Markets eye US CPI amid global trade optimism

The US dollar holds firm as markets await the May US CPI data and the third round of US-China trade talks in London, with cautious optimism stemming from progress on resolving China’s rare earth export restrictions and potential US tech export relief, though concerns linger over Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Next 24 hours: Pound slips on weak UK jobs data

Today’s report: Markets eye US CPI, trade talks for direction

The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest levels since April, despite a slight rebound, as markets focused on ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in London, described as “good” and “fruitful” by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, though geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran conflicts kept investors cautious. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, June 6, 2025

Today’s report: Markets brace for US jobs report

In just six months since President Trump’s inauguration, his once-strong alliance with Elon Musk has deteriorated into a public feud, with Musk criticizing the GOP’s tax-cut bill and Trump threatening Musk’s government contracts. Meanwhile, investors are cautious ahead of the U.S. May jobs report. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, June 5, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar dips, ECB eyes rate cut

Today’s report: Weak US data boosts fed cut bets, Dollar slides

Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, with the May ISM Services Index dropping and ADP employment rising by only 37,000 jobs, both missing forecasts, drove down bond yields and the dollar as markets anticipated a softer Federal Reserve stance on rate cuts, with 57bps of cuts priced in for 2025. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Next 24 hours: Soft inflation fuels ECB easing bets

Today’s report: Global trade tensions and monetary policy shifts

The US dollar and bonds remain weak as fears of “de-dollarization” persist, driven by escalating trade tensions and the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which includes Section 899 allowing taxes on foreign holders of US treasuries from countries with “unfair” tax practices. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, May 29, 2025

Next 24 hours: Fed Minutes overshadowed by tariff uncertainty

Today’s report: Dollar rallies as Nvidia sparks AI optimism

The U.S. dollar may see continued strength due to corporate buying around month-end and Nvidia’s upbeat $45 billion revenue forecast fueling optimism for an “AI industrial revolution” and supporting U.S. equities. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar dips as FOMC minutes loom

Today’s report: US data beats expectations, Dollar holds firm

President Trump’s decision to delay 50% EU tariffs until July 9, coupled with a U.S.-China trade truce, boosted market optimism, with U.S. consumer confidence rising and durable goods orders declining less than expected, easing recession fears and fueling risk-on trades. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar climbs as tariff talks shift

Today’s report: Trading activity to pick up post holiday break

Trading activity is expected to pick up today as the UK and US markets return from holiday. The Yen has maintained a mild bid tone against a weakening US dollar, driven by market-based exchange rate agreements and easing trade tensions. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, May 26, 2025

Today’s report: Trump tariffs spark market jitters….again

Global markets face a turbulent landscape as Trump’s trade threats, rising bond yields, and shifting monetary policies in Japan and the U.S. drive uncertainty, with U.S. and UK market closures for Memorial Day and Spring Bank Holiday amplifying volatility ahead of key economic data releases. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, May 23, 2025

Today’s report: Trump tax bill sparks treasury turbulence

President Trump’s tax legislation initially triggered a Treasuries sell-off, but markets calmed as attention shifted to U.S. economic indicators, though Senate revisions—broadening tax breaks and reinstating program funding—could increase deficits, potentially provoking a bond market reaction. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, May 22, 2025

Next 24 hours: G7 reaffirms market-driven FX

Today’s report: US bond auction flops as fiscal fears grow

The U.S. government’s $16 billion 20-year bond auction, the first major sale since Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, yielded a 1.2 basis point tail despite offering over 5%, signaling investor unease with fiscal irresponsibility, leading to sell-offs in the dollar, U.S. equities, and Treasuries. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Next 24 hours: UK CPI surges, Cable hits 2022 high

Today’s report: Dollar under pressure as trade tensions rise

As global markets navigate heightened uncertainty, the U.S. dollar faces pressure from multiple fronts. Anticipation surrounds talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan’s Finance Minister Kato at the G7 Finance Ministers meeting, with speculation of dollar-negative outcomes tied to President Trump’s push against undervalued Asian currencies, seen as fueling trade surpluses. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Next 24 hours: Inflation watch heats up

Today’s report: US Dollar dips as Fed stays cautious

The market has been focused on U.S. fiscal and bond market developments, with fading concerns over Moody’s downgrade and easing U.S.-China trade tensions reducing haven demand, while tariff-related worries subside. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, May 19, 2025

Next 24 hours: US debt downgrade lifts yields, EZ cuts growth outlook

Today’s report: USD dips on Moody’s downgrade

The US Dollar weakened across major currencies following Moody’s downgrade of the US long-term issuer rating, citing a decade-long rise in government debt and interest payments, with US stock futures, particularly the Nasdaq falling sharply amid warnings of slower GDP growth due to tariffs. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Next 24 hours: They’re still selling the Buck

Today’s report: Cautious optimism fuels risk-on

In a landscape marked by cautious optimism, investors are gently embracing a risk-on sentiment, buoyed by progress in U.S. trade negotiations with key partners and a lack of immediate economic catalysts, though uncertainty lingers over the Trump administration’s tariff policies. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Next 24 hours: All eyes on US CPI data

Today’s report: Not completely out of the woods

The US-China tariff reduction to 30% and 10% for 90 days fueled risk-on sentiment in Asia-Pacific markets, lifting regional stocks, though Treasury yields and the US Dollar slightly retreated from Monday’s surge. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, May 12, 2025

Next 24 hours: US-China tariff cuts spark Dollar rally and risk on flow

Today’s report: US-China trade talk progress boosts sentiment

Asian markets have kicked the week off on a positive note, driven by progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland. The White House signaled an upcoming trade agreement, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese Vice Premier noting significant advancements, boosting regional market sentiment. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, May 8, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar better bid post FOMC

Today’s report: Fed holds rates, flags tariff risks

The Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady has highlighted tariff-driven risks, with the Fed Chair noting potential short-lived inflation but signaling a data-dependent stance, as markets price in 77 basis points of cuts by year-end, likely delayed until Q3 when tariff impacts become clearer. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Special report: FOMC decision preview

Today’s report: US stock futures surge on Trump tariff shift

The US Dollar is holding steady as the day gets going, while U.S. equity futures are on the rise, buoyed by President Trump’s shift toward prescribing tariff levels and trade concessions to avoid higher duties, signaling a departure from prolonged negotiations. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, May 5, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar selling persists despite US jobs report

Today’s report: US tariffs and strong jobs data delay fed rate cuts

Over the weekend, Australian Prime Minister Albanese’s decisive election win bolstered political stability, potentially lifting the Australian Dollar to its fresh 2025 high. But overall, in Asia, markets were quiet due to Japan’s two-day holiday. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, May 2, 2025

Today’s report: Trade talks and tariffs: markets brace for shift

The “Sell America” and peak AI investment themes, once overhyped, are now correcting, with markets entering a consolidation phase as the Trump administration softens its stance on tariffs and seeks trade deals, particularly with China, which insists on tariff removal before talks. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, May 1, 2025

Today’s report: Yen declines after BOJ delays inflation target

In Asia-Pacific markets, focus centered on the BOJ’s May monetary policy decision amid holidays like Labour Day and Japan’s Golden Week, with the BOJ maintaining rates but delaying its 2% inflation target forecast, reducing expectations for near-term rate hikes and opening downside pressure on the yen. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar looking at worst month since November 2022

Today’s report: Will a heavy batch of data move markets?

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s mention of an “escalation ladder” and potential embargo seems to have been interpreted by China as a threat after it prompted the Chinese Foreign Minister to warn against yielding to U.S. tariffs. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar bounces back: Trump eases tariffs, boosts trade talks

Today’s report: Bessent reassures on debt ceiling

Trading conditions have been rather quiet thus far on Tuesday, perhaps thinned by Japan’s holiday. In Canada, the election results show the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, securing a fourth consecutive election victory, though a majority government is still uncertain. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, April 28, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar buying muted despite month-end rebalancing chatter

Today’s report: Trade talks ease tariff fears

The market has shifted from expecting extreme tariffs to anticipating moderately elevated ones, which has helped to bolster risk appetite somewhat, though investors remain cautious amid ongoing trade negotiations, likely leading to choppy, sideways trading. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, April 25, 2025

Today’s report: Trump’s China trade thaw faces skepticism

President Trump’s softer approach toward China, aiming for a June summit, has been met with skepticism as China denies trade talks, labeling them “fake news” and demanding the U.S. eliminate all tariffs, though it’s considering suspending 125% tariffs on select U.S. imports like medical equipment in response to Trump’s tariff exemptions on electronics. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, April 24, 2025

Next 24 hours: Trump tempers tariff cut expectations

Today’s report: Trump softens stance on China

The Trump administration is softening its stance on China, with President Trump indicating tariffs will decrease significantly but not to zero, and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinting at a potential major deal, while the Wall Street Journal has reported proposed tariffs of 50-65%, a significant reduction from China’s current 145%. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar rises, trade tensions ease

Today’s report: Trade optimism lifts stocks, Buck still struggling

The U.S. market rebound, sparked by reported progress in trade talks with India and a softened U.S. stance toward China, including Trump’s dismissal of tariff hikes and threats to oust Federal Reserve Chair Powell, signals a welcome shift to a de-escalation phase in Trump’s trade strategy, with Treasury Secretary Bessent promoting pro-market policies. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar bounces back after Euro and Yen hit key levels

Today’s report: Trump Slams Fed, Buck hits 3-Year low

Risk assets have come under added pressure following President Trump’s Truth Social post demanding “preemptive” Federal Reserve rate cuts, accusing the Fed Chair of lagging and politicizing monetary policy. This has translated to three-year lows for the US Dollar against outperforming peers. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, April 21, 2025

Today’s report: Markets consumed with ‘Sell America’ theme

The Trump administration’s efforts to undermine the independence of agencies like the SEC, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and potentially the Federal Reserve, alongside escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and tariff uncertainties, are fueling a “Sell America” sentiment and contributing to the U.S. dollar’s decline. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, April 18, 2025

Today’s report: Easter slowdown hits markets

Trading conditions have thinned out into the end of the week with many market participants off the desks for the Easter weekend. As we come into Friday, things look relatively stable in the aftermath of the ECB decision to cut rates by another 25 basis points, bringing rates to a 2-year low. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, April 14, 2025

Next 24 hours: Dollar dips on structural concerns

Today’s report: De-escalation sparks rally, Dollar falters

Risk appetite has recovered for now, though the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is still viewed as a tactical move to alleviate intense market stress rather than signaling a shift from the U.S. administration’s “America First” stance. read report

Wake-up call


Friday, April 11, 2025

Today’s report: Euro becoming currency of choice

The US-China trade war has intensified with tariffs on China now at 145%. President Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on up to 70 countries within three months if trade deals aren’t reached, creating significant policy uncertainty that markets dread, especially given the complexity and time typically required for such negotiations. read report

Wake-up call


Thursday, April 10, 2025

Next 24 hours: Uncertainty remains despite tariff pause

Today’s report: Trump’s tariff timeout boosts markets

The financial strain on global markets was getting to be a little too much following the 100%+ US levy on China and China’s retaliatory 34% and 50% tariffs on US goods. And so finally, on Wednesday, President Trump cooled things down after announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. read report

Wake-up call


Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Next 24 hours: Flight to safety changing destinations

Today’s report: Tariffs, turmoil, and trades

US equities, Treasuries, and the US dollar have all come under added pressure as worry around the outlook for the US economy and status of the US as a safe haven is called into question amidst all the turmoil around tariffs and trade wars. read report

Wake-up call


Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Next 24 hours: Markets steady, but growth fears and tariff tensions loom large

Today’s report: Volatility grips global currencies

President Trump’s rumored 90-day tariff pause on all but China was quickly denied, leading US stock indices to slide before closing higher, halting a three-day drop, though uncertainty lingers as over 50 countries await trade talks. President Trump remains defiant, pushing for a trade reset with threats of 104% tariffs on China by Thursday. read report

Wake-up call


Monday, April 7, 2025

Today’s report: US equities back to massive previous resistance

President Trump’s rumored 90-day tariff pause on all but China was quickly denied, leading US stock indices to slide before closing higher, halting a three-day drop, though uncertainty lingers as over 50 countries await trade talks. President Trump remains defiant, pushing for a trade reset with threats of 104% tariffs on China by Thursday. read report

Wake-up call

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